Post by merh on Oct 25, 2022 1:24:29 GMT
Democrats Have Edge in Early Voting
A lead among early voters could mean heightened motivation among Democrats, something the party needs this year, since the majority tends to lose seats in a midterm.
By Susan Milligan
Oct. 24, 2022
Election Day is Nov. 8, and voting has already begun, with more than 7.5 million Americans casting early ballots for the midterm elections, according to the nonpartisan United States Election Project. A cursory look at the demographics of the early vote would cheer Democrats nervous about losing control of both the House and Senate this fall, since Democrats have cast an outsized majority of early (in-person and returned mail ballot) votes.
[ READ: Fetterman’s Doctor Says Pennsylvania Senate Candidate is Fit for Office After Stroke ]
But should Democrats be encouraged? It's a high-tech, informed guessing game among early voting experts, and a closer look at individual states gives both parties reasons for worry and confidence.
Nationally, Democrats are far outpacing Republicans in the early vote so far, according to TargetSmart, a voter analysis firm. Democrats have cast 55% of early ballots so far, compared to 34.5% early ballots by GOP voters and 10.4% for unaffiliated voters.
That's a dramatic improvement for Democrats from the last midterm, when the party took back the House but failed to regain control of the Senate. In 2018, Republicans held the lead in early voting at this stage, accounting for 46.1% of early votes, compared to 44.7% for Democrats and 9.2% for unaffiliated voters, TargetSmart reported.
That could mean heightened motivation among Democratic voters, something the party desperately needs this year, since the party in power tends to lose seats in a midterm election. And it's always useful for either party to get voters out early, since bad weather or other factors could keep people away from the polls on Election Day.
But it could also reflect nothing more than voter preferences on how to vote. Early Republican voting dropped by double digits from 2018 to 2020, even as the pandemic made it less appealing to stand in line with strangers on Election Day. Former President Donald Trump that year also cast suspicion on mail-in voting, which may have discouraged fellow Republicans from voting that way.
In 2020 – when Republicans gained seats in the House and lost Senate control, after two runoff elections in Georgia the following January – GOP voters had cast 35.8% of early votes at this stage, TargetSmart found.
Does that bode well for Democrats? Not necessarily, says Tom Bonier, a Democratic strategist who is CEO of TargetSmart. "These are not projections of outcome or candidate vote totals," since no one knows how these voters actually voted, Bonier writes in an explanatory thread on Twitter. It's just a comparison with previous elections, so "please take it in context," he adds.
In battleground states, the picture is also mixed. In Georgia, for example, there has been tremendous enthusiasm among voters; Gabriel Sterling, chief operating officer for the Georgia secretary of state's office, reported Sunday afternoon that 10,336 Georgians had cast ballots on the first Sunday of early voting so far – double the number form the first Sunday of early voting in 2018. And in the first four days of early voting, the state had already broken its record for pre-Election Day, in-person voting, Sterling said.
Who are they? Mostly (52.1%) Democrats, compared to 41% Republican, TargetSmart reports. That's a big flip from 2018 at this stage of early voting, when 52.1% of early voters were Republican, and 43.1% were Democrats, TargetSmart found.
The United States election project, run by University of Florida professor Michael McDonald, also reports that women are a lopsided part of the early vote, comprising 54.2% of the early vote, compared to 45.4 who are men (the rest are unknown).
On paper, that's good for Democrats, since women are more likely to vote Democratic. But it's also in line with the 2018 election, when women comprised 54% of the final vote – and the governor's seat went to a Republican, Brian Kemp, who is in a rematch this year with Democrat Stacey Abrams.
[ MORE: Election ‘22: Races With No Rules ]
In Pennsylvania, where Democrat John Fetterman barely leads GOP Senate nominee Mehmet Ox in polls, Democrats are way ahead in the early vote participation, accounting for 73.3% of the vote, compared to 23.2% who are Republicans, Target Smart's analysis found. At this stage of early voting in 2018, the GOP was ahead in early voting, casting 49.7% of the vote, compared to 42.9% who were Democrats.
But Keystone State Democrats should not get comfortable: the GOP will catch up in Pennsylvania, McDonald cautions. "Early vote Election Day will be very red, but Fetterman has fewer of his eggs in the Election Day basket in the event of a disruption like bad weather, and his campaign can focus more on turnout out those (identified) supporters who haven't voted yet," McDonald writes.
Bad for Democrats, however, is that the early vote in Pennsylvania is skewing older than it did at this point in 2018 and 2020, Bonier said. But that number too, has its caveats, he said, since young voters in the primary this year in Pennsylvania were much more likely to wait until Election Day to vote than they were on Election Day in 2020.
Young voters tend not to vote early, experts say, but that changed in 2020, when the pandemic led many Americans to vote before Election Day. So far this year, voters 18-29 have cast 4.2% of the vote, compared to their 7.9% share at this stage of the election season in 2020, Target Smart's analysis finds. A YouGuv poll this month found that young voters are split on whether they vote on Election Day or in advance.
So which party has the advantage? In early voting it appears to be Democrats, who are turning in ballots or voting in person, early, far more than Republicans,. But the GOP may have the final, trump card, polling shows.
An NBC poll released Monday finds high interest (70%) among voters nationally in the midterm elections. But the GOP had the edge, with 78% enthusiasm about the elections, compared to 69% of Democrats, the survey found. Democrats are showing up early. but the GOP may show them up on Nov. 8.
A lead among early voters could mean heightened motivation among Democrats, something the party needs this year, since the majority tends to lose seats in a midterm.
By Susan Milligan
Oct. 24, 2022
Election Day is Nov. 8, and voting has already begun, with more than 7.5 million Americans casting early ballots for the midterm elections, according to the nonpartisan United States Election Project. A cursory look at the demographics of the early vote would cheer Democrats nervous about losing control of both the House and Senate this fall, since Democrats have cast an outsized majority of early (in-person and returned mail ballot) votes.
[ READ: Fetterman’s Doctor Says Pennsylvania Senate Candidate is Fit for Office After Stroke ]
But should Democrats be encouraged? It's a high-tech, informed guessing game among early voting experts, and a closer look at individual states gives both parties reasons for worry and confidence.
Nationally, Democrats are far outpacing Republicans in the early vote so far, according to TargetSmart, a voter analysis firm. Democrats have cast 55% of early ballots so far, compared to 34.5% early ballots by GOP voters and 10.4% for unaffiliated voters.
That's a dramatic improvement for Democrats from the last midterm, when the party took back the House but failed to regain control of the Senate. In 2018, Republicans held the lead in early voting at this stage, accounting for 46.1% of early votes, compared to 44.7% for Democrats and 9.2% for unaffiliated voters, TargetSmart reported.
That could mean heightened motivation among Democratic voters, something the party desperately needs this year, since the party in power tends to lose seats in a midterm election. And it's always useful for either party to get voters out early, since bad weather or other factors could keep people away from the polls on Election Day.
But it could also reflect nothing more than voter preferences on how to vote. Early Republican voting dropped by double digits from 2018 to 2020, even as the pandemic made it less appealing to stand in line with strangers on Election Day. Former President Donald Trump that year also cast suspicion on mail-in voting, which may have discouraged fellow Republicans from voting that way.
In 2020 – when Republicans gained seats in the House and lost Senate control, after two runoff elections in Georgia the following January – GOP voters had cast 35.8% of early votes at this stage, TargetSmart found.
Does that bode well for Democrats? Not necessarily, says Tom Bonier, a Democratic strategist who is CEO of TargetSmart. "These are not projections of outcome or candidate vote totals," since no one knows how these voters actually voted, Bonier writes in an explanatory thread on Twitter. It's just a comparison with previous elections, so "please take it in context," he adds.
In battleground states, the picture is also mixed. In Georgia, for example, there has been tremendous enthusiasm among voters; Gabriel Sterling, chief operating officer for the Georgia secretary of state's office, reported Sunday afternoon that 10,336 Georgians had cast ballots on the first Sunday of early voting so far – double the number form the first Sunday of early voting in 2018. And in the first four days of early voting, the state had already broken its record for pre-Election Day, in-person voting, Sterling said.
Who are they? Mostly (52.1%) Democrats, compared to 41% Republican, TargetSmart reports. That's a big flip from 2018 at this stage of early voting, when 52.1% of early voters were Republican, and 43.1% were Democrats, TargetSmart found.
The United States election project, run by University of Florida professor Michael McDonald, also reports that women are a lopsided part of the early vote, comprising 54.2% of the early vote, compared to 45.4 who are men (the rest are unknown).
On paper, that's good for Democrats, since women are more likely to vote Democratic. But it's also in line with the 2018 election, when women comprised 54% of the final vote – and the governor's seat went to a Republican, Brian Kemp, who is in a rematch this year with Democrat Stacey Abrams.
[ MORE: Election ‘22: Races With No Rules ]
In Pennsylvania, where Democrat John Fetterman barely leads GOP Senate nominee Mehmet Ox in polls, Democrats are way ahead in the early vote participation, accounting for 73.3% of the vote, compared to 23.2% who are Republicans, Target Smart's analysis found. At this stage of early voting in 2018, the GOP was ahead in early voting, casting 49.7% of the vote, compared to 42.9% who were Democrats.
But Keystone State Democrats should not get comfortable: the GOP will catch up in Pennsylvania, McDonald cautions. "Early vote Election Day will be very red, but Fetterman has fewer of his eggs in the Election Day basket in the event of a disruption like bad weather, and his campaign can focus more on turnout out those (identified) supporters who haven't voted yet," McDonald writes.
Bad for Democrats, however, is that the early vote in Pennsylvania is skewing older than it did at this point in 2018 and 2020, Bonier said. But that number too, has its caveats, he said, since young voters in the primary this year in Pennsylvania were much more likely to wait until Election Day to vote than they were on Election Day in 2020.
Young voters tend not to vote early, experts say, but that changed in 2020, when the pandemic led many Americans to vote before Election Day. So far this year, voters 18-29 have cast 4.2% of the vote, compared to their 7.9% share at this stage of the election season in 2020, Target Smart's analysis finds. A YouGuv poll this month found that young voters are split on whether they vote on Election Day or in advance.
So which party has the advantage? In early voting it appears to be Democrats, who are turning in ballots or voting in person, early, far more than Republicans,. But the GOP may have the final, trump card, polling shows.
An NBC poll released Monday finds high interest (70%) among voters nationally in the midterm elections. But the GOP had the edge, with 78% enthusiasm about the elections, compared to 69% of Democrats, the survey found. Democrats are showing up early. but the GOP may show them up on Nov. 8.
Ignore the polls & vote like Trump is on the ballot every single time. Vote!